Here's your Hall pass
Tim does a good job in breaking down the Baseball Hall of Fame voting. I'm with Tim in that I don't have a problem with the "first ballot" factor. The writers who select the Hall are a tough sell, and you've got to really wow them to get in right away. That's why you've got 15 years -- gives time for people to reflect on their careers, etc. Sometimes it helps (like Gary Carter), other times it doesn't (think of all the pitchers now passing Bert Blyleven on the all-time strikeout list).

Ryne Sandberg was one of my favorite baseball players growing up behind Don Mattingly (who I'd vote for, but know he probably doesn't belong in the Hall), but I think he sullied his candidacy when he returned from retirement. He got the all-time record for homers by a second baseman in his second tour of duty, but he was so mediocre in the mid-'90s that some voters have that lasting image of him flailing away. I saw too many substandard Sandberg games at Wrigley when I was in college that at times it was painful (even more than normal for a Cubs game). He's got too many other good credentials, though, that he'll get in eventually. Maybe next year or 2005. BTW, if you're a very good but not all-time great player, ending poorly will do a number on your Hall of Fame chances. That's what's hurting Dale Murphy, who couldn't get to 400 homers despite a short stint in Colorado. If you're going to fail miserably trying to extend your career, you'd better have sealed up your Hall pass a long time ago like Mays or Steve Carlton.

Eddie Murray helped himself with his longevity and consistency. It's still hard to believe he's in the same class as Hank Aaron and Willie Mays with 3,000 hits and 500 homers. If he doesn't reach those milestones, he's in the same boat as Andre Dawson. The milestone factor is what will get Paul Molitor into Cooperstown next year. As for Gary Carter, it's about time he got in considering he was about as good as Fisk except that he didn't have the arm-waving thing in '75 (although he makes up for that by actually winning a World Series) or that games-played record (woo-woo). While he became very well known after joining the Mets, I'd like to see Carter with an Expos cap on his plaque.

Speaking of caps on the plaque, Lee Smith may eventually get in, but probably after Dennis Eckersley does. For better or worse, Eckersley revolutionized the closer position and will be rewarded thusly. With his prior career as a starter, Eckersley will be the baseball equivalent of George Blanda. Then I guess Smith would be Jan Stenerud. The question is which cap would Smith would wear, given that he pitched for nearly as many teams as Mike Morgan. Put the blank cap on him, like Catfish Hunter has on his plaque. Problem solved. (Or maybe sell the rights to Rolaids? Nah.) I'm still perplexed as to why Bruce Sutter got more votes than Goose Gossage, though. Maybe the "hanging on too long at the end" also played a part. Sutter fizzled quickly at the end, Gossage seemed to pitch for everyone in the late '80s.

A number of people tout Alan Trammell for the Hall of Fame when Ozzie Smith got in. I don't see it. The numbers are very good, but for the most part, he's being compared to the least common denominator in terms of players already in. A couple of things hurt his candidacy: He got overshadowed by Cal Ripken. He wasn't played off him like ARod-Nomar-Jeter (and now Tejada), instead he was touted part of a pair with Lou Whitaker. And when Whitaker retired one year before Trammell, that screwed them both. I could see this coming from a mile away when Whitaker called it quits. Voters had to think of them separately, not as a pair. While it might've taken them a few years, they might've slowly gained support with people voting for them both at the same time. Instead, Whitaker was off the ballot in one year and Trammell is lingering on the fringes now.

Another favorite part of the Hall process is reading the back half of the voting, and which players got token votes. Craig hit it on the head as to why I think Danny Tartabull got a vote -- it was for his Seinfeld appearance. Whoever voted for him probably also voted for Keith Hernandez ("I'm Keith Hernandez."). Who in the world voted for Mark Davis? I guess the Darren Daulton voter also voted for Lenny Dykstra (but decided against honoring Mitch Williams). And no offense to Darryl Kile, at least he got a few nice pity votes at the end, but we won't have to argue his candidacy in the future (like there was one).

The upcoming classes don't look as good until 2007, which means players like Sandberg and Smith should find their way in pretty soon. However, it will be just a funny to see if anyone decides to vote for Tom Pagnozzi, Jimmy Key (What is he? 45? I can hit him), Jeff King or Stan Javier in future years. Albert Belle probably won't get in, but it will intriguing to see his vote totals.
Very early guesses for upcoming elections:
2004: Sandberg, Eckersley, Molitor
2005: Smith, Boggs
2006: Dawson, Pete Rose (he gets reinstated soon but doesn't get the honor of a first-ballot vote)
2007: McGwire, Gwynn, Ripken